Donald Trump's sweeping victory in the US presidential election has brought into sharp focus his campaign pledge to impose tariffs on Chinese imports in excess of 60 per cent and is likely to spur a shift in stocks to warehouses in China's No.1 export market.
Trump's tariff threat is rattling Chinese factory owners and officials, with some $US500 billion ($A761 billion) worth of shipments annually on the line, while trade tensions with the EU, which last year took $US466 billion worth of Chinese goods, have intensified.
Export momentum has been one bright spot for a struggling economy as household and business confidence has been dented by a prolonged property market debt crisis .
Outbound shipments from the world's second-biggest economy grew 12.7 per cent year-on-year last month, customs data showed on Thursday, blowing past a forecast 5.2 per cent increase in a Reuters poll of economists and a 2.4 per cent rise in September.
Imports fell 2.3 per cent, compared with expectations for a drop of 1.5 per cent, turning negative for the first time in four months.
China's trade surplus grew to $US95.27 billion last month, up from $US81.71 billion in September.
"We can anticipate a lot of front-loading going into the fourth quarter, before the pressure kicks in come 2025," said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
"I think it is mainly down to Trump. The threat is becoming more real."
China's exports to the US increased an annual 8.1 per cent last month, while outbound shipments to Europe jumped 12.7 per cent over the same period.
"We expect shipments to stay strong in the coming months," Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, said in a note.Â
"Any potential drag from Trump tariffs may not materialise until the second half of next year.
"Trump's return could create a short-term boost to Chinese exports as US importers increase their purchases to get ahead of the tariffs," she added.
Among China's top exports to the US last year were smartphones, tablet computers and video games consoles, Chinese customs data shows, setting up a potential repeat of Trump's first term in office when he targeted Chinese electronics manufacturers.
There are signs demand for such products is dimming.
Trade data from South Korea and Taiwan pointed to cooling global demand, while German manufacturers have also reported they are struggling to find buyers overseas, leading analysts to conclude Chinese producers are slashing prices to find buyers or simply moving stocks out of China.
An official factory activity survey for October showed Chinese factories were still struggling to find buyers overseas.
"If the PMI new export sub-index has been going down, and the export figure goes up, I think it is safe to say it's more of an inventory shift," said Dan Wang, a Chinese economist based in Shanghai.
