Australia security aims tangled in Vanuatu election

In the tumultuous weeks since, opposition MPs twice failed with legal bids to cancel the election, while Port Vila was rocked by a 7.3 magnitude earthquake a week before Christmas, killing at least 14 people.

Despite that tragedy, there was revelry on the capital's streets on Monday.

In typical Melanesian style, convoys of cars and vans packed with supporters clad in party colours flooded the capital's main roads, making one final, noisy, pitch to voters on the final day of the formal campaign period.

With a midnight deadline for all campaign activities, many ran that right to the line, creating a racket late into the night.

Plenty is at stake, for both Vanuatu and the region.

Many ni-Vanuatu are frustrated at the political instability, given the churn of 20 different prime ministers this century.

There are serious issues facing one of the Pacific's poorest nations, which must now contend with yet another recovery from a major disaster.

Australia also has skin in the game.

In 2022, Anthony Albanese's government announced a bilateral security agreement with Vanuatu, with Foreign Minister Penny Wong leading a bipartisan delegation to Port Vila to sign the deal.

This pact was the first of several signed in the region during Mr Albanese's tenure, including far-reaching treaties with Tuvalu and Nauru, the NRL-enabling deal with Papua New Guinea, and a major policing investment with Solomon Islands.

In 2024, Australia also helped create two new regional entities: a Pacific Response Group to coordinate military co-deployments, including to disasters, and the $400m Pacific Policing Initiative.

However, the Australia-Vanuatu deal never entered into force: instead, it was cause for deep introspection in Vanuatu, with many MPs upset with prime minister Ishmael Kalsakau's handling of the agreement.

"The agreement was not widely enough consulted amongst Vanuatu politicians and also then amongst the community," Australian Strategic Policy Institute senior analyst Blake Johnson told AAP.

"That was a reason for a vote against him as prime minister, in which he ended up losing the position (though) not necessarily the biggest reason."

Australian National University Asia Pacific Affairs senior fellow Graeme Smith agreed it helped remove Mr Kalsakau from office.

"It was part of the political upheaval. It did play a role," he said.

Several parties want Vanuatu to sidestep the geopolitical contest between the United States and China, viewing their home as a non-aligned nation.

Mr Kalsakau lasted another nine months before shifting allegiances in parliament allowed Sato Kilman a sixth stint as prime minister.

Mr Kilman was replaced by Charlot Salwai in October 2023, who looked like losing office himself late in 2024, before he dissolved parliament to head off a no-confidence motion.

While Mr Kilman and Mr Salwai did not ratify the security agreement, Mr Kalsakau has vowed to do so if his opposition bloc is returned to power.

"We will get the ratification through," he told AAP in December.

A lot is at stake for Vanuatu in the election, and for the Pacific region as well. (Ben McKay/AAP PHOTOS)

Mr Johnson said that promise would depend on the shape of the government after the election.

"His coalition will likely be made up of multiple small parties, each with their own agendas, and if he tries to rush too fast on security agreements with Australia, it can lead to one party getting up and moving to the other side in a motion of no confidence," he said.

Mr Johnson said he imagined that "people sitting back in Canberra would have fingers crossed hoping to see Kalsakau returned" as it was "a good time for the relationship", though he believed there were no poor outcomes for Australia.

"But in comparison to maybe some of the other leaders across the Pacific, there's no one (Australia) butts heads with as much as in other countries."