According to the Bureau of Meteorology, it may not be as bad as we fear.
To put it into context we can compare the forecast rain between Thursday and Sunday, with what we have already received.
I am looking at the rain that has fallen upstream of Shepparton, feeding the Goulburn and Broken rivers.
For September and October, Benalla received a total of 151mm. The forecast for Thursday to Sunday is, at a minimum, 31mm and at most, 62mm.
Mangalore received a total of 272mm in September and October, while the forecast minimum over the next few days is 17mm, and the maximum 37 mm.
For Lake Eildon, 237mm was recorded over the past two months, and the bureau is forecasting a minimum of 22mm and maximum of 45mm.
Of course, the bureau also factors in the “chance of rain” as a percentage, and that varies for each centre.
We need to take into account the current high state of the rivers, which are between moderate and major flood level.
The rain will also be falling on saturated ground.
The Goulburn River at Shepparton peaked at 12.06 metres around 9.08pm on Sunday, October 16, and has been falling slowly since.
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