The ACT Labor-Greens government faces one of the toughest tests of its 16-year reign on Saturday, with a reinvigorated Liberal opposition under moderate Elizabeth Lee mounting a compelling case for a fresh start.
However, it remains a tall order for Ms Lee to end 23 years of Liberal exile in the nation's capital, which holds the title of Australia's most progressive jurisdiction.
The cost of living, housing and public transport have been top of mind for voters in the ACT. (Lukas Coch/AAP PHOTOS)
For all his detractors, of which there are many, Chief Minister Andrew Barr - the longest-serving incumbent leader in Australia - still commands strong support among electors.
Retiree Andrew Grant was still undecided about who would get his vote in Mr Barr's central Canberra electorate of Kurrajong, where Ms Lee and Greens leader Shane Rattenbury are also vying for the five seats up for grabs.
While he thought the government was showing signs of complacency, he gave it full marks for its plans to grow housing supply by increasing density and continuing its light rail network build.
"Being an older person, I'm more interested in what's available for the younger people," he told AAP outside an early polling centre in Dickson.
"I'm in a walking group and young people are always talking about how expensive housing is."
The Liberals have made housing a key policy pillar as well, preferring instead to release new land for development on Canberra's outer fringes and cancelling plans to extend the popular light rail to federal parliament and the southern suburbs.
Retiree Andrew Grant is among the large contingent of ACT voters who have cast early ballots. (Jacob Shteyman/AAP PHOTOS)
But they seem to be getting the biggest cut-through on the cost of living.
Ms Lee hopes to capitalise on frustration among homeowners who have seen their rates grow substantially since the government moved to abolish stamp duty in 2012, setting a 2.2 per cent cap on rate increases.
However, with big-spending promises, including a new sports stadium in the centre of town, and no new taxes, she has come under fire for her policy costings.
The Greens, meanwhile, are confident they can build on the record six seats they won in 2020.
Mr Rattenbury, who has been a member of cabinet since 2012, has said he has what it takes to become chief minister in a Greens-led coalition government.
But electoral analyst Ben Raue, who runs the Tally Room website, said it would be difficult for the Greens to increase their representation.
The David Pocock-backed Independents for Canberra group could erode the Greens' vote. (Mick Tsikas/AAP PHOTOS)
He said a small drop in their vote could cost them an outsized number of seats due to the territory's Hare-Clark voting system.
He predicts another Labor minority government, given the ACT's left-leaning nature.
The Greens are also threatened by a strong challenge from independents, led by the David Pocock-backed Independents for Canberra group and their lead candidate Thomas Emerson.
No independents have won a seat in the 25-member Legislative Assembly since 1998 but the success of Senator Pocock and the teals in the 2022 federal election has given them hope.
Almost half of the ACT's approximately 320,000 enrolled voters have already cast their ballots, meaning results should start flying in at 6pm when early votes are added to the tally.
With no reliable polling to go by, it is anyone's guess who will hold the reins in the nation's capital after Saturday night.
13°C